HOW FAR WILL A DESPERATE RADICAL AMERICA GO?
Ghassan Kadi
18 April 2012
There is little doubt that the global financial power shift is moving from West to East. If there is any controversy about the subject, it is only about its timing, but it is clear to all that China’s economy surpassing that of the US will happen in the near future.
The big question is what will America do to delay this process and/or try to totally prevent it. America’s “action” will largely depend on which America are we talking about, the mind-set in the Whitehouse, and the driving force behind the President at the time.
That said, a very small percentage of Americans are likely to take giving the centre court to China lightly. But how many will take it sitting down, and to what extent are they going to stand up and do something about it?
There is little doubt that fundamentalism in the whole world is on the rise, and America is not an exception. The white ultra-right TEA party is on the rise. This is not to forget the many number of heavily armed right-wing militia groups. If anything, the economic demise will bring about more job losses, and the anger will serve as an excellent recruitment tool for the radicals. In this climate, it is only likely that as America’s economy falls deeper and deeper into trouble, radicalism and fundamentalism will swell.
To imagine that by the time the Chinese economy gets close to be on par with that of the US and that the White House will have an incumbent President who will make Sarah Palin look like Mother Teresa is not unfathomable. In fact, it is highly likely.
Even now, the American economy is truly in tatters and only narrowly escaping official bankruptcy, firstly by virtue of still being able to get away with “financial easing”, a politically correct term that truly means printing money, and secondly, by still being able to borrow money either from overseas lenders and/or domestically.
This scenario cannot continue for much longer and, soon enough Americans are going to realize that their government has borrowed trillions of dollars (3-4) from the private retirement funds of average moms and dads. This is money that the treasury is not going to be able to repay. The dirt will hit the fan when those investors reach their retirement age and realise that their nest-egg has been blown away. Yet more food for anger and more fuel for radicalism.
For America to be able to pull of this mess in the near future or the lesser mess it is in now, it will need resources, determination, and proper planning.
The natural resources have been but wiped out, oil and minerals have been exploited, and the vast irrigated plains are already running out of ground water. The human resource in America cannot compete with the massive Chinese numbers. China is already producing more science graduates than the USA, and the gap will only to widen.
Determination does not seem to be in the right place of Americans hearts. Proper determination should begin with tightening the belt and rolling up the sleeves. Instead, Americans are not trying to reduce their spendings and they are blaming only banks, big business and the government and seem unprepared and unwilling to make any sacrifices.
Proper planning also seems to be missing because, in America, this implies totalitarianism and is tantamount to Communism. The only situation in which the American government is able to take a totalitarian action is that of declaring war.
Totally bankrupt, with an army that hasn't the funds to fight a conventional war, and even if it did have such funds, it would not be strong enough to spread wide, deep and far enough in order to be able to capture territory and keep the Chinese and Russians at bay. Hence, the only foreseeable supremacy that the US would possess is its nuclear power.
It must be borne in mind however that for China to surpass America’s defence technology and prowess, that will come decades after China’s economy becomes the largest in the world.
The USA is always accused of keeping its hands on the oil resources of the Middle East. For fairness, by-and-large, it is “only” controlling its flow, but still paying for it; albeit in printed money.
A bankrupt, desperate and oil-thirsty USA may feel compelled to threaten oil-rich countries with air-strikes and even nuclear attacks, should they continue to supply oil to the Chinese and Russians.
In an escalated situation, at stage two, an isolated oil-thirsty USA may become tempted to literally steal this oil. The USA may start with easy, close targets such as Venezuela. A desperate USA with a radical President in the Whitehouse will possibly be tempted to take over by force the oil fields of such soft targets. This can be the beginning of a long path of piracy.
How far can this path be pursued is anyone’s guess. The next target can be a puppet state like Qatar, even Saudi Arabia itself.
In such a desperate stage, the USA can only rely on its nuclear supremacy in order for it to be able to force its way. It will not have the financial resources to put boots on the ground, and any ensuing internal strife potentially caused by financial woes will add to the expense and risks of this exercise.
The radical hawks will be up-in-arms calling for the use of nuclear weapons, and any country that stands in the way of America can be nuked. There will be preachers and instigators calling for the nuking of Mecca and the takeover of oil from the Islamic terrorists.
And the Middle East will probably be full of Islamic terrorists by then. After all, the so-called Arab Spring has been hijacked by the USA, but with the short-sightedness of American foreign policies, at the end of the day, the Arab World is being handed to the Islamists on a silver platter. Only Syria, Iran and Lebanon are standing in the way of the master US/Israeli plan.
To predict that in a few more years the rule of the Saudi family will come to an end is not unrealistic. If/when they get toppled, the only candidates for taking over are the Islamists. Would this not be enough incentive for the radical ultra-right wing US President of that time to invade the land of the former ally and forcefully take over the oil, even at the risk of instigating a small scale nuclear war?
And if the home-grown hawks are not crowing loud enough to implement radical action by their Federal Government, the Israel Lobby will be in a much more desperate situation. By that time, Israel will be surrounded by radical regimes and will be facing a struggle for survival. If America does not draw the first nuke-blood, Israel may take this initiative and drag America into a decision it was not able to make on its own.
Realistically, no nation is close to winning any nuclear war with the USA. In the event of a major nuclear escalation with say China, the USA will be able to wipe out all the major Chinese cities before it suffers any serious retaliation from the Chinese.
The only real nuclear threat is Russia, and the USA can either avoid confrontation with Russia and/or rely on its superiority in the field and the fact that most of the Soviet era nukes have deteriorated beyond repair.
In reality, a full-on nuclear confrontation with Russia will inflict more harm to the USA than a confrontation with the Chinese, but it will annihilate Russia before it inflicts any serious damage on the USA.
The radical hawks will be pushing the nuclear agenda whilst America is still the strongest nuclear power and before it loses this opportunity.
During the Cold War, a nuclear confrontation was averted because the two powers were virtually on par with each other and none were in a stage of desperation. When the USSR crumbled, the state of desperation came from within and a confrontation with the USA would not have solved the problem.
Last but not least, in the 1950’s-80’s, the USA was not prepared to take any nuclear risk of any magnitude. But a bankrupt USA may become more than prepared to sacrifice a major city or two.
Any other confrontation, ie other than nuclear, will hasten America’s demise. The Iraq/Afghanistan wars have cost the treasury a total of three trillion dollars of borrowed money. Even another regional conventional war with Iran may become the financial straw that will break America’s economic back.
So when push comes to shove, if America does not accept the changes of the tides, and if it remains determined to keep its stature by hook or by crook, its only option will have to be nuclear-backed piracy and quick and decisive nuclear action.
Ghassan Kadi
18 April 2012
There is little doubt that the global financial power shift is moving from West to East. If there is any controversy about the subject, it is only about its timing, but it is clear to all that China’s economy surpassing that of the US will happen in the near future.
The big question is what will America do to delay this process and/or try to totally prevent it. America’s “action” will largely depend on which America are we talking about, the mind-set in the Whitehouse, and the driving force behind the President at the time.
That said, a very small percentage of Americans are likely to take giving the centre court to China lightly. But how many will take it sitting down, and to what extent are they going to stand up and do something about it?
There is little doubt that fundamentalism in the whole world is on the rise, and America is not an exception. The white ultra-right TEA party is on the rise. This is not to forget the many number of heavily armed right-wing militia groups. If anything, the economic demise will bring about more job losses, and the anger will serve as an excellent recruitment tool for the radicals. In this climate, it is only likely that as America’s economy falls deeper and deeper into trouble, radicalism and fundamentalism will swell.
To imagine that by the time the Chinese economy gets close to be on par with that of the US and that the White House will have an incumbent President who will make Sarah Palin look like Mother Teresa is not unfathomable. In fact, it is highly likely.
Even now, the American economy is truly in tatters and only narrowly escaping official bankruptcy, firstly by virtue of still being able to get away with “financial easing”, a politically correct term that truly means printing money, and secondly, by still being able to borrow money either from overseas lenders and/or domestically.
This scenario cannot continue for much longer and, soon enough Americans are going to realize that their government has borrowed trillions of dollars (3-4) from the private retirement funds of average moms and dads. This is money that the treasury is not going to be able to repay. The dirt will hit the fan when those investors reach their retirement age and realise that their nest-egg has been blown away. Yet more food for anger and more fuel for radicalism.
For America to be able to pull of this mess in the near future or the lesser mess it is in now, it will need resources, determination, and proper planning.
The natural resources have been but wiped out, oil and minerals have been exploited, and the vast irrigated plains are already running out of ground water. The human resource in America cannot compete with the massive Chinese numbers. China is already producing more science graduates than the USA, and the gap will only to widen.
Determination does not seem to be in the right place of Americans hearts. Proper determination should begin with tightening the belt and rolling up the sleeves. Instead, Americans are not trying to reduce their spendings and they are blaming only banks, big business and the government and seem unprepared and unwilling to make any sacrifices.
Proper planning also seems to be missing because, in America, this implies totalitarianism and is tantamount to Communism. The only situation in which the American government is able to take a totalitarian action is that of declaring war.
Totally bankrupt, with an army that hasn't the funds to fight a conventional war, and even if it did have such funds, it would not be strong enough to spread wide, deep and far enough in order to be able to capture territory and keep the Chinese and Russians at bay. Hence, the only foreseeable supremacy that the US would possess is its nuclear power.
It must be borne in mind however that for China to surpass America’s defence technology and prowess, that will come decades after China’s economy becomes the largest in the world.
The USA is always accused of keeping its hands on the oil resources of the Middle East. For fairness, by-and-large, it is “only” controlling its flow, but still paying for it; albeit in printed money.
A bankrupt, desperate and oil-thirsty USA may feel compelled to threaten oil-rich countries with air-strikes and even nuclear attacks, should they continue to supply oil to the Chinese and Russians.
In an escalated situation, at stage two, an isolated oil-thirsty USA may become tempted to literally steal this oil. The USA may start with easy, close targets such as Venezuela. A desperate USA with a radical President in the Whitehouse will possibly be tempted to take over by force the oil fields of such soft targets. This can be the beginning of a long path of piracy.
How far can this path be pursued is anyone’s guess. The next target can be a puppet state like Qatar, even Saudi Arabia itself.
In such a desperate stage, the USA can only rely on its nuclear supremacy in order for it to be able to force its way. It will not have the financial resources to put boots on the ground, and any ensuing internal strife potentially caused by financial woes will add to the expense and risks of this exercise.
The radical hawks will be up-in-arms calling for the use of nuclear weapons, and any country that stands in the way of America can be nuked. There will be preachers and instigators calling for the nuking of Mecca and the takeover of oil from the Islamic terrorists.
And the Middle East will probably be full of Islamic terrorists by then. After all, the so-called Arab Spring has been hijacked by the USA, but with the short-sightedness of American foreign policies, at the end of the day, the Arab World is being handed to the Islamists on a silver platter. Only Syria, Iran and Lebanon are standing in the way of the master US/Israeli plan.
To predict that in a few more years the rule of the Saudi family will come to an end is not unrealistic. If/when they get toppled, the only candidates for taking over are the Islamists. Would this not be enough incentive for the radical ultra-right wing US President of that time to invade the land of the former ally and forcefully take over the oil, even at the risk of instigating a small scale nuclear war?
And if the home-grown hawks are not crowing loud enough to implement radical action by their Federal Government, the Israel Lobby will be in a much more desperate situation. By that time, Israel will be surrounded by radical regimes and will be facing a struggle for survival. If America does not draw the first nuke-blood, Israel may take this initiative and drag America into a decision it was not able to make on its own.
Realistically, no nation is close to winning any nuclear war with the USA. In the event of a major nuclear escalation with say China, the USA will be able to wipe out all the major Chinese cities before it suffers any serious retaliation from the Chinese.
The only real nuclear threat is Russia, and the USA can either avoid confrontation with Russia and/or rely on its superiority in the field and the fact that most of the Soviet era nukes have deteriorated beyond repair.
In reality, a full-on nuclear confrontation with Russia will inflict more harm to the USA than a confrontation with the Chinese, but it will annihilate Russia before it inflicts any serious damage on the USA.
The radical hawks will be pushing the nuclear agenda whilst America is still the strongest nuclear power and before it loses this opportunity.
During the Cold War, a nuclear confrontation was averted because the two powers were virtually on par with each other and none were in a stage of desperation. When the USSR crumbled, the state of desperation came from within and a confrontation with the USA would not have solved the problem.
Last but not least, in the 1950’s-80’s, the USA was not prepared to take any nuclear risk of any magnitude. But a bankrupt USA may become more than prepared to sacrifice a major city or two.
Any other confrontation, ie other than nuclear, will hasten America’s demise. The Iraq/Afghanistan wars have cost the treasury a total of three trillion dollars of borrowed money. Even another regional conventional war with Iran may become the financial straw that will break America’s economic back.
So when push comes to shove, if America does not accept the changes of the tides, and if it remains determined to keep its stature by hook or by crook, its only option will have to be nuclear-backed piracy and quick and decisive nuclear action.
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